We released 6 selections for the week, in keeping with our recent form of a pick pace below our anticipated levels. As this is the final week of the regular season many teams “tinker” with lineups by resting players or using untested reserves. As such I am not anticipating a large number of plays for this week either. American League Pennant and Wild Card Races These comments include the games of Monday, September 27th. We have maintained the last few weeks that Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Texas would win their Divisions with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. Currently this scenario is holding but the Rays are leading the Yankees by only ½ game. We still anticipate Tampa to take the Division not only because of their easier remaining schedule, but because should they end the season in a tie the Rays would be named the Division Champ by virtue of their winning their season series over the Yanks 10-8. There would not be a 1 game tiebreaker because the losing team would still make the playoffs as the Wild Card. So New York will need to make up 1½ games on Tampa in the remaining week of the season to win the Division outright. Minnesota is still lurking 1 game behind in the race for overall best record in the American League. Here too, a tie does the Twins no good as they lost their season series to both the Yankees and the Rays. Therefore Minnesota will have to make up 2 full games this week if they are to end the Season with best record in the AL. If they do not succeed, whether they maintain a better record than the loser of the NY/Tampa duel doesn’t matter, because by statute the Wild Card Team cannot have the Home Field advantage in any series throughout the AL Playoffs. If I am correct about the finish in the AL the playoffs would open with Texas visiting Tampa Bay and New York visiting Minnesota. The first round of the playoffs is a best of 5 played in a 2-2-1 format.
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Last week we looked at the American League Pennant and Wild Card Races and concluded that Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Texas would win their Divisions with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. Through games of Sunday, September 19th New York was maintaining a ½ game lead on the Rays. Looking at the remaining schedules list below we see that Tampa clearly has the easier schedule down the stretch and the Yankees will need to take their final series versus the Rays in order to extend their lead. I look for the Rays to win the Division.
The team with the best overall record in the regular season is rewarded with the home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs. Currently the Yankees lead that race, but Minnesota is lurking 1 game behind. Should the Yankees and Rays split, Minnesota would have a very real chance of surpassing New York by virtue of their soft schedule. The Twins have lost their season series against both New York and Tampa Bay, so it will take the absolute best record to earn this reward. A tie with either team will result in the Yanks or Rays having the Home field advantage.
Listed below are the remaining schedules for the division teams in question and the current AL Standings.
Last week we looked at the National League Pennant and Wild Card Races and concluded that Philadelphia, Cincinnati and San Francisco would win their divisions and that the Atlanta-San Diego Wild Card race would be the one to watch. This week we will examine the last 3 weeks of the American League Season. As you are aware, the 3 division champs enter the league playoffs along with the non-division winner with the best record. They are considered the Wild-Card team.
This data is through the games of Sunday, September 12th. On the left is the traditional standings, the table on the right analyzes the Wild Card Race.
As we are in the final month of the season I thought we might take a look at the League races. This week it will be the National League, and next week the American. As you are aware, the 3 division champs enter the league playoffs along with the non-division winner with the best record. They are considered the Wild-Card team.
This data is through the games of Sunday, September 5th. On the left is the traditional standings, the table on the right analyzes the Wild Card Race.
Our Math Model for winning betting baseball requires each starting pitcher to have a minimum of 2 starts both at home and on the road. That requirement eliminated several games from consideration Sunday.
Of additional interest in Sunday’s games was that of the 16 contests, 9 featured a Road Favorite greater than a -1.10. Is this unusual? Considering 9 of 16 = 56+% it certainly is. In examining the records this season, one finds that in games that were greater than -1.10, The Road Team was favorite less than 30% of the time. So we had nearly twice as many Road Favorites than one would expect. How did these favorites do yesterday? They went 6-3, and as none were >-2.00 the Road Favorites were profitable as a group.
How about for the season?
The following statistics take into account only those games were the favorite was greater than -1.10. There is a certain margin of error in these numbers, as the same game will have many wagering lines (depending which book you look at) and the same game at the same book will have many prices from opening to the closing line. We consider a pick game to be up to -1.10 on either team. So for the purposes of this analysis we will consider those favorites greater than pick-em.
To read our full analysis of last week's games, click here.
The Baseball Handicapper is currently +16.39 units for the 2010 season. As it was a short week, we released only 5 Best Bets bringing the season total to 109 picks. We normally project 250 to 300 plays per season, but we may fall short of that this season. There are 12 weeks remaining in the regular season not counting postseason play. To reach 250 by the end of the regular season we would need to average 12 plays per remaining week. That pace would add 144 selections to the 109 already released to total 253 (in addition to the postseason).
We do expect the pace of my selections to increase during July and August, but please remember that it is the quality of the selections and not the quantity that is important. As our method involves looking for value and situational advantages, we will only release a play when it is appropriate.
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