Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper bounced back with a solid 7-4 week winning 4.84 units.  We are now +12.30 units on the season.  We released 11 best bets for the week, the most for any week in 2013.  Starting poorly, we lost our first two selections, but finished the week strong winning 7 of our next 9 Best Bets.

Selection Weighting

Several subscribers have pointed out that we have had only one 3 unit pick thus far this season.  When asked before the start of the 2013 campaign I had estimated 15-20% of my Best Bets would be of a higher unit value.  Why the difference?  Those of you who have known me a while know that I do nothing by "feel" or by the seat of my pants.  I've known several gamblers who have had good luck pressing when things are going well and then cutting back when out of sync.  I've never been one of those.  What is the definition of "things are going well"?  When is the winning streak or positive momentum over?  I've never been able to determine this by "feel" and thus have never been able to maximize profits in this fashion.  To me that was too much like gambling, with the potential of a small streak of losing picks wiping out a prolonged period of winning selections.

My investment approach looks for a convergence of signals or situations as the trigger for a higher level play.  The triggers I anticipated using this season have not proven reliable enough to encourage a higher wager.  Thus, only the one 3 unit pick in 2013.  All methods do evolve, however, and other strategies and signals I monitor have emerged providing a higher level of confidence.   This leads me to anticipate additional 3 and 4 unit plays the balance of the season.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week #	Beg Date	End Date	Best Bets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Units	Running Total
1	4/29/2013	5/5/2013	7	4	3	0	+1.20	+1.20
2	5/6/2013	5/12/2013	9	5	4	0	+0.08	+1.28
3	5/13/2013	5/19/2013	6	2	4	0	-5.28	-4.00
4	5/20/2013	5/26/2013	8	5	3	0	+3.82	-0.18
5	5/27/2013	6/2/2013	9	8	1	0	+14.28	+14.10
Season Totals			39	24	15	0	+14.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, June 2nd

 

Week in Review
 
The Baseball Handicapper had a strong week going 8-1 and winning 14.28 Units.  We are now +14.10 units on the season.  We were fortunate Saturday as the Twins scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th to win as a -1.25 favorite.  Overall our teams outscored their opponents by 20 runs.  We also won our 1st (and only thus far) Over/Under selection of the 2013 Season. 

Extremes in Win/Loss Percentages

Most years the best team in all of baseball wins less than .667 of it's games and the worst teams wins more than .333.  Put another way, most seasons the best team usually wins less than 2 of 3 and the worst team usually wins more than 1 of 3.  This would put all teams with win percentages between .333 and .667.  2012 was no exception, as the Nats lead all of baseball with a 98-64 record (.605) and Houston was at the bottom with their 55-107 mark (.340).  When exceptions do occur, they are usually on the losing end. You have to go back the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks to find such an exception as that lowly squad finished with a 51-111 record (.315).

The 2013 season was shaping up with the possibility of 2 teams exceeding this measure of futility, with both the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins looking like likely candidates.  Both teams however finished strong last week with the Astros winning 5 straight and the Marlins 3 in a row.  That leaves only Miami below the infamous .333 mark.  As of Sunday they were 16-41 sporting a .281 win percentage.  The best team in the league, the St. Louis Cardinals. are 37-19 with a .661 win rate, just below that .667 upper bar.

 

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

The 2013 Season is well underway with teams having played about 20 ball games.  While I do not rely exclusively on my math model, for it to be effective requires each starting pitcher to have a minimum of 2 starts both at home and away.  So The Baseball Handicapper will begin daily notifications to our clients on Monday, April 29th.

We are excited about this season after having bounced back to profitability in 2012.  We have now showed a profit in 7 of our 8 years and are plus a solid 166 units over that time frame.

Wishing you a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper

Week in Review

As of yesterday, Sunday April 24^th, we had not started releasing picks.  My Math Model requires both starting pitchers have 2 starts both home and away.  Saturday the 23^rd was the first day any games met our qualification.  We will have Best Bets this coming week. 

MLB Statistics Used in Analysis

Last year I defined and reviewed some of the statistics that I use regularly.  As it is the beginning of our season, and since we have so many new subscribers, I thought it worthwhile to revisit them again.

Baseball, more than any other major sport, is sliced and diced into many, many statistics. As you know I quote several Team and Pitcher stats in my write-ups. I thought it might be useful to review some of these and provide a benchmark for the various measurements. The statistics listed are final league averages for 2010 with some guidelines  provided on some statistics.

I’ve had to abbreviate some stats for lack of space. H=Hits, AB=At Bats, BB=Walks, HBP=Hit By Pitch, SF=Sacrifice Fly

I hope this provides a little insight into those stats you will see me quote regularly as part of my baseball betting strategy.

Wishing you a great week!

The Best Baseball Handicapper