Analysis of Home and Road Favorites

Our Math Model for winning betting baseball requires each starting pitcher to have a minimum of 2 starts both at home and on the road. That requirement eliminated several games from consideration Sunday.

Of additional interest in Sunday’s games was that of the 16 contests, 9 featured a Road Favorite greater than a -1.10. Is this unusual? Considering 9 of 16 = 56+% it certainly is. In examining the records this season, one finds that in games that were greater than -1.10, The Road Team was favorite less than 30% of the time. So we had nearly twice as many Road Favorites than one would expect. How did these favorites do yesterday? They went 6-3, and as none were >-2.00 the Road Favorites were profitable as a group.

How about for the season?

The following statistics take into account only those games were the favorite was greater than -1.10. There is a certain margin of error in these numbers, as the same game will have many wagering lines (depending which book you look at) and the same game at the same book will have many prices from opening to the closing line. We consider a pick game to be up to -1.10 on either team. So for the purposes of this analysis we will consider those favorites greater than pick-em.

To read our full analysis of last week's games, click here.