Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper bounced back with a solid 7-4 week winning 4.84 units.  We are now +12.30 units on the season.  We released 11 best bets for the week, the most for any week in 2013.  Starting poorly, we lost our first two selections, but finished the week strong winning 7 of our next 9 Best Bets.

Selection Weighting

Several subscribers have pointed out that we have had only one 3 unit pick thus far this season.  When asked before the start of the 2013 campaign I had estimated 15-20% of my Best Bets would be of a higher unit value.  Why the difference?  Those of you who have known me a while know that I do nothing by "feel" or by the seat of my pants.  I've known several gamblers who have had good luck pressing when things are going well and then cutting back when out of sync.  I've never been one of those.  What is the definition of "things are going well"?  When is the winning streak or positive momentum over?  I've never been able to determine this by "feel" and thus have never been able to maximize profits in this fashion.  To me that was too much like gambling, with the potential of a small streak of losing picks wiping out a prolonged period of winning selections.

My investment approach looks for a convergence of signals or situations as the trigger for a higher level play.  The triggers I anticipated using this season have not proven reliable enough to encourage a higher wager.  Thus, only the one 3 unit pick in 2013.  All methods do evolve, however, and other strategies and signals I monitor have emerged providing a higher level of confidence.   This leads me to anticipate additional 3 and 4 unit plays the balance of the season.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week #	Beg Date	End Date	Best Bets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Units	Running Total
1	4/29/2013	5/5/2013	7	4	3	0	+1.20	+1.20
2	5/6/2013	5/12/2013	9	5	4	0	+0.08	+1.28
3	5/13/2013	5/19/2013	6	2	4	0	-5.28	-4.00
4	5/20/2013	5/26/2013	8	5	3	0	+3.82	-0.18
5	5/27/2013	6/2/2013	9	8	1	0	+14.28	+14.10
Season Totals			39	24	15	0	+14.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, June 2nd

 

Week in Review
 
The Baseball Handicapper had a strong week going 8-1 and winning 14.28 Units.  We are now +14.10 units on the season.  We were fortunate Saturday as the Twins scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th to win as a -1.25 favorite.  Overall our teams outscored their opponents by 20 runs.  We also won our 1st (and only thus far) Over/Under selection of the 2013 Season. 

Extremes in Win/Loss Percentages

Most years the best team in all of baseball wins less than .667 of it's games and the worst teams wins more than .333.  Put another way, most seasons the best team usually wins less than 2 of 3 and the worst team usually wins more than 1 of 3.  This would put all teams with win percentages between .333 and .667.  2012 was no exception, as the Nats lead all of baseball with a 98-64 record (.605) and Houston was at the bottom with their 55-107 mark (.340).  When exceptions do occur, they are usually on the losing end. You have to go back the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks to find such an exception as that lowly squad finished with a 51-111 record (.315).

The 2013 season was shaping up with the possibility of 2 teams exceeding this measure of futility, with both the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins looking like likely candidates.  Both teams however finished strong last week with the Astros winning 5 straight and the Marlins 3 in a row.  That leaves only Miami below the infamous .333 mark.  As of Sunday they were 16-41 sporting a .281 win percentage.  The best team in the league, the St. Louis Cardinals. are 37-19 with a .661 win rate, just below that .667 upper bar.

 

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

Week #	Beg Date	End Date	Best Bets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Units	Running Total
1	4/29/2013	5/5/2013	7	4	3	0	+1.20	+1.20
2	5/6/2013	5/12/2013	9	5	4	0	+0.08	+1.28
Season Totals			16	9	7	0	+1.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 12th

 

Week in Review
 
The Baseball Handicapper managed a small profit for the week going 5-4 while winning .08 Units. We are now +1.28 units on the season. It was see-saw week winning our first 3 decisions, then losing 3 in a row and then going 2-0 on Saturday.  On Sunday we had 1 Best Bet (Arizona) where we took a 2-0 lead into the ninth. The DBacks couldn't hold it however, and they lost 4-2 in 10 innings.  Arizona now has 11 blown saves this season, most in all of Baseball and 23 Save Opportunities, 2nd most in MLB.  This 52% Save Rate however places the DBacks near the bottom of the ranks.
 
We had 9 Best Bets on the week, a slight pickup from week 1. We lost our first (and only) 3 unit play and have not released any totals yet in 2013.


Scoring Update

Teams are averaging 4.26 Runs Per Game this year which is the lowest since the 4.12 scored in 1992. In totals wagering however, the Over has a commanding 283-249 lead (253-228 in Non Extra Inning Games). This 53+% Overs percentage won't be sustained, so look for the Under to catch up over the next few weeks.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week #   Beg Date    End Date    Best Bets    Wins    Loses    Ties    Units    Running Total

    1          4/29/2013     5/5/2013           7              4           3         0      +1.20          +1.20

                         Season Totals            7              4           3         0      +1.20

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 5th 
 
Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper started the 2013 season showing a modest 1.20 unit profit while going 4-3.  We also had one selection rained out after 4 innings while leading 1-0.  We expect to offer a larger quantity of picks this coming week as more games will have the preferred minimum starts for each pitcher.

 
Listed Pitchers

Just a reminder that when playing any of our Picks be sure to specify "Listed Pitchers".  As we are distributing our Best Bets earlier in the day there is a greater possibility of a change of pitcher after we have released a pick.  So be sure that you specify the Starting Pitchers as indicated in our email.

 
Wagering on Over/Unders

This year I do anticipate releasing some Best Bets on Game Total Runs Scored also known as Over/Unders.  I thought it might be useful to review wagering on Baseball Totals.

When we release an Over/Under Best Bet it will ALWAYS be on the combined total runs scored of both teams.  That may sound funny or obvious, but nowadays there are lines for how many runs each team will score in a single MLB Game.  We do not analyze these lines so we will not have a selection of this type.

Wagering on Over/Unders in Baseball can be confusing. In Football and Basketball, an “over” or “under” wager or “totals” wager is just another bet from the viewpoint that you are typically laying 1.10 to win 1.00. In a Football game for instance you might play Over 47 points and risk 1.10 to win 1.00 times the number of units.

In Baseball however there is a runs component and a money odds component. For example, if a game is quoted as 8 or “8 flat” then it would be the same as with Football or Basketball. You could play Over or Under 8 and either would cost you 1.10 to win 1.00. The money component however, is not always -1.10.  For example, you might be quoted “8 over -1.20”. In this scenario the total is 8, but if you wanted the Over you would risk 1.20 to win 1.00 and if you wanted Under you would risk 1.00 to win 1.00. That is because there is typically a total of 20 cents of juice and rather than change the total number of runs, the bookie may adjust the money odds. You may see 8 Over -1.30. There you would risk 1.30 to win 1.00 if you want the over but if you played Under you would wager 1.00 to win 1.10.

The situation could also be reversed and you may be quoted 8 under -1.30. In this scenario the opposite is true. A wager Under would require you to lay 1.30 to win 1.00 and on a bet Over you would risk 1.00 to win 1.10. Just keep in mind that typically there is a total of 20 cents of juice combined between the Over and Under.

We will probably not have too many Over/Under wagers this season, but we will be real specific on what to wager when we do. When betting totals the listed pitchers must go (no need to specify) and games that are less than 9 innings are deemed “No Action”, even though they may be considered “official” games by MLB.

 
Have a Great Week!
The Baseball Handicapper

Week in Review

 

The Baseball Handicapper had a terrible week going 1-6 and losing 12.12 units for the week. The week culminated with Saturday’s 0-3 performance where none of our selections even scored. Our worst week last year was 2-9 for -12.14 units; very similar numbers. We are now -16.52 units after 2 weeks.  7 Best Bets were released on the week, below our anticipated 10-15 range.

 

Money Management

 

Bad streaks like this are part of a Handicapper’s reality and we overcame extended losing periods in each of the last 2 years to end those seasons in profits. The key of course is to stay in the game, and this means managing your money by using a conservative percentage of bankroll per unit. If you have not done so, we recommend reading our article on Money Management. Properly managing your bankroll is vital to long term success in this business.

 

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

 

The lack of hitting and scoring has been receiving a lot of press and rightly so. The National League teams are batting only .248, a number not seen since 1989. Their 4.13 Runs per Game scoring pace is the lowest since the 3.88 runs per game scored in 1992. NL Batters are striking out 7.37 times per game, a number equal to last year, which was the highest in history!

 

American League hitters are batting only .250, a number not seen since 1972. The scoring average of 4.24 is the lowest since 1981 and the 6.72 strikeouts per game are the second highest in AL history. Only the 6.74 posted in 2009 exceeds this number.

 

So what is causing this? One thought is that teams are carrying older players on their rosters, due to long term contracts, fan appeal or any of a number of reasons. So we extended our baseball analysis to investigate this dynamic. It turns out that in the National League average batter age of 29.1 is the same it was in 2000, with some years since being both above and below this average. The American League does carry a slightly older average, probably due to the Designated Hitter. The 29.5 average ages of batter for the AL is in fact the highest since the WWII years of 1944-46. The AL Average for batters from years 1994-2010 is 29.   I will leave it up to the reader as to whether this additional ½ per year in age is statistically significant.

 

Can we take advantage of this trend?

 

Can we utilize this information in doing our Baseball Handicapping? Our Math Model and baseball betting strategy automatically factors in this trend in the computation of both the true odds and the anticipated total score. What about the Odds Maker? With less scoring one would expect more “unders” than “overs”. Unders are ahead, but at 244 to 240, the numbers are virtually even. Apparently the Odds Maker has also been adjusting the Over/Under odds to reflect this trend.

 

Wagering on Over/Unders

 

Next week we will cover the mechanics of betting on Baseball Totals, a wager that is more complicated than a straight bet on a Baseball Game and more complicated than betting Over/Unders in either Football or Basketball.

 

  

Wishing you a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week in Review

We have not yet started releasing picks this season.

As our baseball analysis Math Model requires both pitchers in any given game to have at least 2 starts both home and away we expect to start releasing picks this week. 

Early Season Trends

As was the case last year, early season underdogs have been profitable (winning 52.44% of their games) with home dogs performing particularly well (59.38%).  Boston started the season losing 6 consecutive road games (where they were a Pick once and the favorite in the other 5) and this certainly contributed to this record.

Over/Unders are close to 50/50 with the Overs leading 110-106.

Teams With Fast or Slow Starts

Colorado, Cleveland and Kansas City have certainly been positive surprises so far this season.   Early season disappointments have been Boston, the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays.  As the chart below indicates (and as you might expect) pitching has been the reason for most of these teams.   Teams with a lower ERA are doing much better this season, while the opposite is true for those teams with a higher ERA.   Tampa is the exception where their weak start is due to their scoring, which has dropped from 4.95 runs per game in 2011 to 3.60 thus far in 2011.

Team	2010 Record	2011 Record		2010 ERA	2011 ERA
Colorado	83-79  .512	12-3  .800		4.14	3.43
Cleveland	69-93  .426	11-4  .733		4.30	3.16
Kansas City	67-95  .414	10-5  .667		4.97	3.70
Boston	89-73  .549	4-10  .286		4.20	5.93
New York Mets	79-83  .488	5-11  .312		3.70	5.26
Tampa Bay	96-66  .593	6-9    .400		3.78	3.86

As history dictates and as I am fond of pointing out, almost all MLB teams will play at a pace between .333 and .667.  It is still early, so the above trends may continue for a while, but as the season progresses we will look for these teams to return towards their mean.

Overall scoring remains at the lower end of the multiyear averages.   The 2011 National League average of 4.40 Runs Per Games is slightly higher than last year’s 4.35 (for the entire season), but the 2010 number was the lowest since the 1992 season average of 3.88.   The American League teams are scoring at a 4.33 clip (down from 4.45 last year for the entire season) and this would represent the lowest number since the 4.32 average per game also posted for the 1992 season.

  

Newsletter Topics

Please feel free to email suggestions to info@thebaseballhandicapper.com.

Have a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper

Every day The Baseball Handicapper analyzes and handicaps each Major League Baseball game looking for the smart plays for the sharp betting on baseball. When we believe that there is a significant edge in making a play, we will make it a Best Bet and release this information to our Baseball Insiders, those with a paid subscription. Insiders will have access to all our Best Bets, which will also include a brief write-up explaining why each Best Bet is a smart play.
                                                                                                                 
Occasionally we will make one of these Best Bets a Free Pick available to all Members, but most of the time our free baseball handicapping picks will be those plays that are very close to being a Best Bet, but not quite the caliber of a play that we feel warrants a 2-unit Best Bet rating.  We will only put out a Free Pick to our Members if we sincerely believe that you have an edge by making the bet.  This is why we will not issue a Free Pick everyday as there may not be any worthwhile plays for that day.  As a Member, you can expect to receive a Free Pick several times a week.

If you are not a member of The Baseball Handicapper visit www.thebaseballhandicapper.com to join now so you can gain a competitive advantage.

There will likely be 200 to 300 baseball handicapping selections throughout the season, which works out to 10 to 15 picks per week. There will also be Playoff and World Series selections when The Baseball Handicapper sees favorable situations and line value.

The Baseball Handicapper’s math model requires each starting pitcher to have at least two (2) starts both at home and away before we will even consider a game as a Best Bet. This is why we do not begin releasing picks to our subscribers until the 3rd or 4th week of the season. This will also explain why you will not see Best Bets from The Baseball Handicapper on games with a rookie pitcher just brought up from the Minor Leagues, seen most often in the dog days of summer in late August and September, when a team is out of Playoff contention. We may, however, have some early season strong opinions (not a best bet) based on other factors than the math.

Our Best Bets will be sent to you via email. When there are day and night games it is possible you will receive two (2) emails that day, one in the morning no later than Noon Eastern (9am Pacific) and the other no later than 6pm Eastern (3pm Pacific). This allows The Baseball Handicapper to account for the most current player matchups, weather conditions, and scheduled umpires, which are not always known by Noon Eastern Time when we release our Daytime Best Bets. Our emails will clearly state whether or not you should expect another email that same day.