NEWSLETTER 2.8
5/30/2011 7:39:24 PM
Week #
Beg Date
End Date
Best Bets
Wins
Loses
Ties
Units
Running
Total
1
4/25/2011
5/1/2011
4
1
3
0
-4.40
-4.40
2
5/2/2011
5/8/2011
7
1
6
0
-12.12
-16.52
3
5/9/2011
5/15/2011
8
6
2
0
+7.43
-9.09
4
5/16/2011
5/22/2011
5
0
5
0
-10.16
-19.25
5
5/23/2011
5/29/2011
7
2
5
0
-7.28
-26.53
Season Totals
31
10
21
0
-26.53
All Stats and Records are through games of Sunday, May 29th
Week in Review
The Baseball Handicapper struggled again last week going 2-5 for a loss of 7.28 Units. We are now 10-21, -26.53 units on the year. 7 Best Bets were released on the week, below our anticipated 10-15 range.
Our slump is now over a Month old and reminds us of last year’s midseason draw down where over a nine week period we lost 35.31 units. Even with that losing streak we were profitable in 2010.
Weekly/Monthly Trends
This was a big week for Favorites. You may have noticed Sunday that the Favorites won 14 of the 16 games. For the week the “chalk” was 59-33 (64.13%) and is now 423-351 (54.65%) on the season. As of 5/1 (covered in newsletter 2.4) Favorites and Dogs were tied at 209-209. So for the last 4 weeks Favorites have enjoyed a 214-142 run (60.1%). Road favorites last week were 18-7 (72.0%) and are now 120-107 (52.9%) in 2011.
Since we referenced data as of 5/1 I thought we would also look at the Over/Unders over that period. We have talked about the lack of scoring and how the Odds Maker has adjusted to this trend. For the last 4 weeks (since 5/1) the Over/Under record was 176/174. Hard to get more even than that!
Unsustainable Trends
The Cleveland Indians (19-6 76%) and Milwaukee Brewers (21-7 75%) have racked up impressive records at Home this season. If they were continue to play at this pace these teams would each end the season with 61 Home victories. You would have to go back to the 1998 New York Yankees to find a team with that many Home victories. The ’98 Yanks went 114-48 for the season (70+%) and had an astounding 62-19 (76+%) record at Home. The 2001 Seattle Mariners, who were 116-46 (71+%) were 57-24 at Home.
How do we take advantage of this? A couple of baseball betting strategies may prove profitable. When these teams play on the Road they will be overvalued. As both teams have losing records away from Home (Clev 12-13) and Milwaukee (8-17) it would be prudent to look for spots to play against these teams when they are traveling. One could also wait for their Home momentum to flatten out, at which point you will find great value playing against these teams even at Home.
Wishing you a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper
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