Baseball Handicapping Newsletter 2.2

Week in Review

We have not yet started releasing picks this season.

As our baseball analysis Math Model requires both pitchers in any given game to have at least 2 starts both home and away we expect to start releasing picks this week. 

Early Season Trends

As was the case last year, early season underdogs have been profitable (winning 52.44% of their games) with home dogs performing particularly well (59.38%).  Boston started the season losing 6 consecutive road games (where they were a Pick once and the favorite in the other 5) and this certainly contributed to this record.

Over/Unders are close to 50/50 with the Overs leading 110-106.

Teams With Fast or Slow Starts

Colorado, Cleveland and Kansas City have certainly been positive surprises so far this season.   Early season disappointments have been Boston, the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays.  As the chart below indicates (and as you might expect) pitching has been the reason for most of these teams.   Teams with a lower ERA are doing much better this season, while the opposite is true for those teams with a higher ERA.   Tampa is the exception where their weak start is due to their scoring, which has dropped from 4.95 runs per game in 2011 to 3.60 thus far in 2011.

Team	2010 Record	2011 Record		2010 ERA	2011 ERA
Colorado	83-79  .512	12-3  .800		4.14	3.43
Cleveland	69-93  .426	11-4  .733		4.30	3.16
Kansas City	67-95  .414	10-5  .667		4.97	3.70
Boston	89-73  .549	4-10  .286		4.20	5.93
New York Mets	79-83  .488	5-11  .312		3.70	5.26
Tampa Bay	96-66  .593	6-9    .400		3.78	3.86

As history dictates and as I am fond of pointing out, almost all MLB teams will play at a pace between .333 and .667.  It is still early, so the above trends may continue for a while, but as the season progresses we will look for these teams to return towards their mean.

Overall scoring remains at the lower end of the multiyear averages.   The 2011 National League average of 4.40 Runs Per Games is slightly higher than last year’s 4.35 (for the entire season), but the 2010 number was the lowest since the 1992 season average of 3.88.   The American League teams are scoring at a 4.33 clip (down from 4.45 last year for the entire season) and this would represent the lowest number since the 4.32 average per game also posted for the 1992 season.

  

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Have a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper