Week in Review

As of yesterday, Sunday April 24^th, we had not started releasing picks.  My Math Model requires both starting pitchers have 2 starts both home and away.  Saturday the 23^rd was the first day any games met our qualification.  We will have Best Bets this coming week. 

MLB Statistics Used in Analysis

Last year I defined and reviewed some of the statistics that I use regularly.  As it is the beginning of our season, and since we have so many new subscribers, I thought it worthwhile to revisit them again.

Baseball, more than any other major sport, is sliced and diced into many, many statistics. As you know I quote several Team and Pitcher stats in my write-ups. I thought it might be useful to review some of these and provide a benchmark for the various measurements. The statistics listed are final league averages for 2010 with some guidelines  provided on some statistics.

I’ve had to abbreviate some stats for lack of space. H=Hits, AB=At Bats, BB=Walks, HBP=Hit By Pitch, SF=Sacrifice Fly

I hope this provides a little insight into those stats you will see me quote regularly as part of my baseball betting strategy.

Wishing you a great week!

The Best Baseball Handicapper

Week in Review

We have not yet started releasing picks this season.

As our baseball analysis Math Model requires both pitchers in any given game to have at least 2 starts both home and away we expect to start releasing picks this week. 

Early Season Trends

As was the case last year, early season underdogs have been profitable (winning 52.44% of their games) with home dogs performing particularly well (59.38%).  Boston started the season losing 6 consecutive road games (where they were a Pick once and the favorite in the other 5) and this certainly contributed to this record.

Over/Unders are close to 50/50 with the Overs leading 110-106.

Teams With Fast or Slow Starts

Colorado, Cleveland and Kansas City have certainly been positive surprises so far this season.   Early season disappointments have been Boston, the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays.  As the chart below indicates (and as you might expect) pitching has been the reason for most of these teams.   Teams with a lower ERA are doing much better this season, while the opposite is true for those teams with a higher ERA.   Tampa is the exception where their weak start is due to their scoring, which has dropped from 4.95 runs per game in 2011 to 3.60 thus far in 2011.

Team	2010 Record	2011 Record		2010 ERA	2011 ERA
Colorado	83-79  .512	12-3  .800		4.14	3.43
Cleveland	69-93  .426	11-4  .733		4.30	3.16
Kansas City	67-95  .414	10-5  .667		4.97	3.70
Boston	89-73  .549	4-10  .286		4.20	5.93
New York Mets	79-83  .488	5-11  .312		3.70	5.26
Tampa Bay	96-66  .593	6-9    .400		3.78	3.86

As history dictates and as I am fond of pointing out, almost all MLB teams will play at a pace between .333 and .667.  It is still early, so the above trends may continue for a while, but as the season progresses we will look for these teams to return towards their mean.

Overall scoring remains at the lower end of the multiyear averages.   The 2011 National League average of 4.40 Runs Per Games is slightly higher than last year’s 4.35 (for the entire season), but the 2010 number was the lowest since the 1992 season average of 3.88.   The American League teams are scoring at a 4.33 clip (down from 4.45 last year for the entire season) and this would represent the lowest number since the 4.32 average per game also posted for the 1992 season.

  

Newsletter Topics

Please feel free to email suggestions to info@thebaseballhandicapper.com.

Have a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper

The 2011 MLB SEASON IS UNDERWAY and The Baseball Handicapper has worked hard in the off season in preparation for what should be our 7th consecutive winning season.

As a subscriber to the Baseball Handicapper you will receive quality selections based on my proprietary math model and various situational analysis. No hype, no 20 star locks, just solid, value-based handicapping as we approach Baseball Wagering as an investment.

Our math model requires each starting pitcher to have 2 starts both home and away, so we will look to start releasing Best Bets next week.

DAILY EMAIL NOTIFICATION WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY, APRIL 18TH.

Don’t miss a single Best Bet, as we look to add to our 6 year record of +179 units. Last year we started the season strong and finished strong, so for the best results we highly recommend that you be with us for the entire season.

Please visit our website www.TheBaseballHandicapper.com for more information
and to subscribe BEFORE we release our first Best Bet next week.

Thank you
The Baseball Handicapper

As you know our math model requires each starting pitcher to have two starts both home and away.  We will keep you posted as to when we will start releasing free baseball picks.  Typically this is after April 15th. 

If you're looking for free baseball handicapping tips, visit www.thebaseballhandicapper.com.

Welcome to The Baseball Handicapper's first newsletter of 2011!  Through hard work and discipline we are looking forward to extending our streak of 6 consecutive winning seasons.  I thought I would use this first letter to review some of the basics.

Picks Release Schedule

Any math based model requires data to be effective and my TBH Math Model is no different.  Over the years I’ve observed that if both pitchers in any given game have at least 2 starts both home and away, then that is enough data for the model to be effective.  We would expect to start releasing picks beginning next Monday April 18^th. 

We release our picks via email either once or twice daily.  If there are day games (games that start prior to 6 PM Eastern Time) then there will be a morning email somewhere around Noon, ET.  Monday through Saturday there will be an afternoon email no later than 6 PM ET.  Sunday is the exception as all picks are typically released at once, normally no later than 12 noon ET.

Our picks will always be weighted between 2 to 4 units, with the majority being 2 unit selections.

Money Management

There can never be too much emphasis given to the subject of money management.  It is truly the difference between winning and losing, especially over the long term.  We view Baseball wagering as an investment and utilize a disciplined approach to our pick selection and to the weighting.  We suggest you take a disciplined approach as well, and recommend you read our article on money management.    http://www.thebaseballhandicapper.com/News.aspx?NewsID=2. We would also recommend that you establish your Baseball bankroll now and therefore your unit size, and stick with that unit size for the entire season.

Last Year’s Results

The 2010 MLB season was our 6th consecutive winning season, but our profit for the year was the lowest over that stretch.  I have been working hard in the off-season analyzing both the model and methodology and have every reason to believe that we will improve upon last year’s profitable record.  Winning and losing streaks do occur however, and without warning.   Our strong start and strong finish last year emphasizes the point that is important to be with us from “Day One” and to follow the program for the entire season.

Survey

Thank you to those of you that responded to our pre-season survey.  In an effort to make our service (your service really) the best that it could be, we asked about various topics including game write-ups, our newsletter, and pick release times.  This input is very important and by a clear majority the feedback was to keep the mechanics of the service just as it was last year.  So you will not see any changes in this regard.

Newsletter Topics

Next week we will start analyzing the trends of this young 2011 MLB Season.  Please feel free to email suggestions to info@thebaseballhandicapper.com.

Have a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper

I grew up in a gambling household, the son of a professional sports bettor. While my Dad did have a straight job, the real money came from sports betting.  I started learning the gambling business at an early age with my father teaching me the ropes of sports wagering in my teens. Our family frequently played cards, held the occasional casino night at my Mom's place in Beverly Hills, California, and I hustled bowling and poker whenever I could.

Some of my fondest memories growing up were the regular trips to Las Vegas with my family where we were treated like high rollers.  I saw every major entertainer of the late 60's and 70's, usually accompanied by a full orchestra all decked out in tuxedos.  We were treated to performances by Sammy Davis Jr., Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin, Joey Bishop, Ann Margaret, Elvis, The Fifth Dimension, Diana Ross (with and without the Supremes), Glen Campbell, Lionel Hampton and many more.  I loved those shows and grew to love the Vegas high roller lifestyle that my Dad raised us in.

Of course my Dad was in Las Vegas to conduct his business and to visit with his friends in the sports betting world.  Many of these people are now considered legends in this arena, but I was just meeting them as a kid.  People like Lem Banker, Bob Martin, Lefty Rosenthal, Sonny Reizner, Pittsburgh Jack Franzi, Gene Mayday, Johnny Quinn and others.  Back home family friends included Morty Olshan of Gold Sheet fame and Jerry Kilgore of JK Sports.  These friends nicknamed my Dad "The Whiz", a name that stuck for decades, for his ability to continually beat the number in sports betting.

So needless to say my sports betting career started early.  As a youngster I committed all of the mistakes that young gamblers commit and many times over. I bet out of proportion to my bankroll, took shots when I didn’t have enough money to pay, made bets just to be in the action or because the game was on TV, bet on sports I didn't know anything about...and of course I wanted to do this all on my own.  For instance, during the NFL season (Lem Banker's best sport) my Dad would say “let me help you, let me give you the games Lem and I are playing".  But I wouldn't listen, I was stubborn.  It wasn't winning money that was the thrill; it was about being right and picking the winner myself.

So I was up and down the proverbial roller coaster like any out of control gambler.   My Dad knew I needed help so he got me work with one of the local bookmakers in town.  This was quite the experience and over the years I held several positions in bookmaking organizations, which gave me an invaluable inside view of how the sports betting business really works...as well as a couple of arrests!

Even after leaving that side of the business, my sports wagering and baseball betting strategy continued.  I can truly say that I did not become consistently successful until 15 years ago.  As I matured, winning money became more important to me than picking winners.  I let go of the ego and began focusing on what works.  I finally learned betting discipline and what it meant to be in control.  I learned the lessons of line value, money management and the edge in betting against the public.  Basically, after all those years, I finally embraced the invaluable lessons I learned from "The Whiz".  If only I would have listened to my Dad earlier on.

In looking back over my nearly 40 years of sports betting, there was always one consistent trend.  This was my skill of consistently making profits by betting on Major League Baseball.  I will be the first to admit being flush with cash and then broke many times, sometimes within the same betting season!  In studying my records over the years, the large swings from boom to bust were a result of winning and losing streaks in football and basketball.  This is when I realized that if it is simply about making profits, then I needed to only focus on my true gift, the ability to successfully handicap baseball.  I truly do not recall the last time that I had a losing baseball season.  Baseball's emphasis on statistics and the large number of games in the season plays to my strength, to my handicapping style, and therefore to my advantage.

After the urging of a close friend, and now my business partner in this venture, I decided to offer my Major League Baseball selections as Best Bets to the sports betting public starting in 2010.  We believe we are the only baseball handicapping service available today that specializes in generating profits by betting exclusively on Major League Baseball.

Please see our Handicapping Method and Money Management articles for our baseball wagering strategy.  The Past Performance page highlights my prior years' records.

Wishing you a profitable baseball season.

The Baseball Handicapper.