Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper bounced back with a solid 7-4 week winning 4.84 units.  We are now +12.30 units on the season.  We released 11 best bets for the week, the most for any week in 2013.  Starting poorly, we lost our first two selections, but finished the week strong winning 7 of our next 9 Best Bets.

Selection Weighting

Several subscribers have pointed out that we have had only one 3 unit pick thus far this season.  When asked before the start of the 2013 campaign I had estimated 15-20% of my Best Bets would be of a higher unit value.  Why the difference?  Those of you who have known me a while know that I do nothing by "feel" or by the seat of my pants.  I've known several gamblers who have had good luck pressing when things are going well and then cutting back when out of sync.  I've never been one of those.  What is the definition of "things are going well"?  When is the winning streak or positive momentum over?  I've never been able to determine this by "feel" and thus have never been able to maximize profits in this fashion.  To me that was too much like gambling, with the potential of a small streak of losing picks wiping out a prolonged period of winning selections.

My investment approach looks for a convergence of signals or situations as the trigger for a higher level play.  The triggers I anticipated using this season have not proven reliable enough to encourage a higher wager.  Thus, only the one 3 unit pick in 2013.  All methods do evolve, however, and other strategies and signals I monitor have emerged providing a higher level of confidence.   This leads me to anticipate additional 3 and 4 unit plays the balance of the season.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week #	Beg Date	End Date	Best Bets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Units	Running Total
1	4/29/2013	5/5/2013	7	4	3	0	+1.20	+1.20
2	5/6/2013	5/12/2013	9	5	4	0	+0.08	+1.28
3	5/13/2013	5/19/2013	6	2	4	0	-5.28	-4.00
4	5/20/2013	5/26/2013	8	5	3	0	+3.82	-0.18
5	5/27/2013	6/2/2013	9	8	1	0	+14.28	+14.10
Season Totals			39	24	15	0	+14.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, June 2nd

 

Week in Review
 
The Baseball Handicapper had a strong week going 8-1 and winning 14.28 Units.  We are now +14.10 units on the season.  We were fortunate Saturday as the Twins scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th to win as a -1.25 favorite.  Overall our teams outscored their opponents by 20 runs.  We also won our 1st (and only thus far) Over/Under selection of the 2013 Season. 

Extremes in Win/Loss Percentages

Most years the best team in all of baseball wins less than .667 of it's games and the worst teams wins more than .333.  Put another way, most seasons the best team usually wins less than 2 of 3 and the worst team usually wins more than 1 of 3.  This would put all teams with win percentages between .333 and .667.  2012 was no exception, as the Nats lead all of baseball with a 98-64 record (.605) and Houston was at the bottom with their 55-107 mark (.340).  When exceptions do occur, they are usually on the losing end. You have to go back the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks to find such an exception as that lowly squad finished with a 51-111 record (.315).

The 2013 season was shaping up with the possibility of 2 teams exceeding this measure of futility, with both the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins looking like likely candidates.  Both teams however finished strong last week with the Astros winning 5 straight and the Marlins 3 in a row.  That leaves only Miami below the infamous .333 mark.  As of Sunday they were 16-41 sporting a .281 win percentage.  The best team in the league, the St. Louis Cardinals. are 37-19 with a .661 win rate, just below that .667 upper bar.

 

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

Week #	Beg Date	End Date	Best Bets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Units	Running Total
1	4/29/2013	5/5/2013	7	4	3	0	+1.20	+1.20
2	5/6/2013	5/12/2013	9	5	4	0	+0.08	+1.28
Season Totals			16	9	7	0	+1.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 12th

 

Week in Review
 
The Baseball Handicapper managed a small profit for the week going 5-4 while winning .08 Units. We are now +1.28 units on the season. It was see-saw week winning our first 3 decisions, then losing 3 in a row and then going 2-0 on Saturday.  On Sunday we had 1 Best Bet (Arizona) where we took a 2-0 lead into the ninth. The DBacks couldn't hold it however, and they lost 4-2 in 10 innings.  Arizona now has 11 blown saves this season, most in all of Baseball and 23 Save Opportunities, 2nd most in MLB.  This 52% Save Rate however places the DBacks near the bottom of the ranks.
 
We had 9 Best Bets on the week, a slight pickup from week 1. We lost our first (and only) 3 unit play and have not released any totals yet in 2013.


Scoring Update

Teams are averaging 4.26 Runs Per Game this year which is the lowest since the 4.12 scored in 1992. In totals wagering however, the Over has a commanding 283-249 lead (253-228 in Non Extra Inning Games). This 53+% Overs percentage won't be sustained, so look for the Under to catch up over the next few weeks.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week #   Beg Date    End Date    Best Bets    Wins    Loses    Ties    Units    Running Total

    1          4/29/2013     5/5/2013           7              4           3         0      +1.20          +1.20

                         Season Totals            7              4           3         0      +1.20

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 5th 
 
Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper started the 2013 season showing a modest 1.20 unit profit while going 4-3.  We also had one selection rained out after 4 innings while leading 1-0.  We expect to offer a larger quantity of picks this coming week as more games will have the preferred minimum starts for each pitcher.

 
Listed Pitchers

Just a reminder that when playing any of our Picks be sure to specify "Listed Pitchers".  As we are distributing our Best Bets earlier in the day there is a greater possibility of a change of pitcher after we have released a pick.  So be sure that you specify the Starting Pitchers as indicated in our email.

 
Wagering on Over/Unders

This year I do anticipate releasing some Best Bets on Game Total Runs Scored also known as Over/Unders.  I thought it might be useful to review wagering on Baseball Totals.

When we release an Over/Under Best Bet it will ALWAYS be on the combined total runs scored of both teams.  That may sound funny or obvious, but nowadays there are lines for how many runs each team will score in a single MLB Game.  We do not analyze these lines so we will not have a selection of this type.

Wagering on Over/Unders in Baseball can be confusing. In Football and Basketball, an “over” or “under” wager or “totals” wager is just another bet from the viewpoint that you are typically laying 1.10 to win 1.00. In a Football game for instance you might play Over 47 points and risk 1.10 to win 1.00 times the number of units.

In Baseball however there is a runs component and a money odds component. For example, if a game is quoted as 8 or “8 flat” then it would be the same as with Football or Basketball. You could play Over or Under 8 and either would cost you 1.10 to win 1.00. The money component however, is not always -1.10.  For example, you might be quoted “8 over -1.20”. In this scenario the total is 8, but if you wanted the Over you would risk 1.20 to win 1.00 and if you wanted Under you would risk 1.00 to win 1.00. That is because there is typically a total of 20 cents of juice and rather than change the total number of runs, the bookie may adjust the money odds. You may see 8 Over -1.30. There you would risk 1.30 to win 1.00 if you want the over but if you played Under you would wager 1.00 to win 1.10.

The situation could also be reversed and you may be quoted 8 under -1.30. In this scenario the opposite is true. A wager Under would require you to lay 1.30 to win 1.00 and on a bet Over you would risk 1.00 to win 1.10. Just keep in mind that typically there is a total of 20 cents of juice combined between the Over and Under.

We will probably not have too many Over/Under wagers this season, but we will be real specific on what to wager when we do. When betting totals the listed pitchers must go (no need to specify) and games that are less than 9 innings are deemed “No Action”, even though they may be considered “official” games by MLB.

 
Have a Great Week!
The Baseball Handicapper

The 2013 Season is well underway with teams having played about 20 ball games.  While I do not rely exclusively on my math model, for it to be effective requires each starting pitcher to have a minimum of 2 starts both at home and away.  So The Baseball Handicapper will begin daily notifications to our clients on Monday, April 29th.

We are excited about this season after having bounced back to profitability in 2012.  We have now showed a profit in 7 of our 8 years and are plus a solid 166 units over that time frame.

Wishing you a great week!

The Baseball Handicapper