2013 Season - Week 7 Review

 

Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper bounced back with a solid 7-4 week winning 4.84 units.  We are now +12.30 units on the season.  We released 11 best bets for the week, the most for any week in 2013.  Starting poorly, we lost our first two selections, but finished the week strong winning 7 of our next 9 Best Bets.

Selection Weighting

Several subscribers have pointed out that we have had only one 3 unit pick thus far this season.  When asked before the start of the 2013 campaign I had estimated 15-20% of my Best Bets would be of a higher unit value.  Why the difference?  Those of you who have known me a while know that I do nothing by "feel" or by the seat of my pants.  I've known several gamblers who have had good luck pressing when things are going well and then cutting back when out of sync.  I've never been one of those.  What is the definition of "things are going well"?  When is the winning streak or positive momentum over?  I've never been able to determine this by "feel" and thus have never been able to maximize profits in this fashion.  To me that was too much like gambling, with the potential of a small streak of losing picks wiping out a prolonged period of winning selections.

My investment approach looks for a convergence of signals or situations as the trigger for a higher level play.  The triggers I anticipated using this season have not proven reliable enough to encourage a higher wager.  Thus, only the one 3 unit pick in 2013.  All methods do evolve, however, and other strategies and signals I monitor have emerged providing a higher level of confidence.   This leads me to anticipate additional 3 and 4 unit plays the balance of the season.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper