Week # Beg Date End Date Best Bets Wins Loses Ties Units Running Total
1 4/29/2013 5/5/2013 7 4 3 0 +1.20 +1.20
Season Totals 7 4 3 0 +1.20
All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 5th
Week in Review
The Baseball Handicapper started the 2013 season showing a modest 1.20 unit profit while going 4-3. We also had one selection rained out after 4 innings while leading 1-0. We expect to offer a larger quantity of picks this coming week as more games will have the preferred minimum starts for each pitcher.
Listed Pitchers
Just a reminder that when playing any of our Picks be sure to specify "Listed Pitchers". As we are distributing our Best Bets earlier in the day there is a greater possibility of a change of pitcher after we have released a pick. So be sure that you specify the Starting Pitchers as indicated in our email.
Wagering on Over/Unders
This year I do anticipate releasing some Best Bets on Game Total Runs Scored also known as Over/Unders. I thought it might be useful to review wagering on Baseball Totals.
When we release an Over/Under Best Bet it will ALWAYS be on the combined total runs scored of both teams. That may sound funny or obvious, but nowadays there are lines for how many runs each team will score in a single MLB Game. We do not analyze these lines so we will not have a selection of this type.
Wagering on Over/Unders in Baseball can be confusing. In Football and Basketball, an “over” or “under” wager or “totals” wager is just another bet from the viewpoint that you are typically laying 1.10 to win 1.00. In a Football game for instance you might play Over 47 points and risk 1.10 to win 1.00 times the number of units.
In Baseball however there is a runs component and a money odds component. For example, if a game is quoted as 8 or “8 flat” then it would be the same as with Football or Basketball. You could play Over or Under 8 and either would cost you 1.10 to win 1.00. The money component however, is not always -1.10. For example, you might be quoted “8 over -1.20”. In this scenario the total is 8, but if you wanted the Over you would risk 1.20 to win 1.00 and if you wanted Under you would risk 1.00 to win 1.00. That is because there is typically a total of 20 cents of juice and rather than change the total number of runs, the bookie may adjust the money odds. You may see 8 Over -1.30. There you would risk 1.30 to win 1.00 if you want the over but if you played Under you would wager 1.00 to win 1.10.
The situation could also be reversed and you may be quoted 8 under -1.30. In this scenario the opposite is true. A wager Under would require you to lay 1.30 to win 1.00 and on a bet Over you would risk 1.00 to win 1.10. Just keep in mind that typically there is a total of 20 cents of juice combined between the Over and Under.
We will probably not have too many Over/Under wagers this season, but we will be real specific on what to wager when we do. When betting totals the listed pitchers must go (no need to specify) and games that are less than 9 innings are deemed “No Action”, even though they may be considered “official” games by MLB.
Have a Great Week!
The Baseball Handicapper
0 comments
Post a Comment