Week #	Beg Date	End Date	Best Bets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Units	Running Total
1	4/29/2013	5/5/2013	7	4	3	0	+1.20	+1.20
2	5/6/2013	5/12/2013	9	5	4	0	+0.08	+1.28
Season Totals			16	9	7	0	+1.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 12th

 

Week in Review
 
The Baseball Handicapper managed a small profit for the week going 5-4 while winning .08 Units. We are now +1.28 units on the season. It was see-saw week winning our first 3 decisions, then losing 3 in a row and then going 2-0 on Saturday.  On Sunday we had 1 Best Bet (Arizona) where we took a 2-0 lead into the ninth. The DBacks couldn't hold it however, and they lost 4-2 in 10 innings.  Arizona now has 11 blown saves this season, most in all of Baseball and 23 Save Opportunities, 2nd most in MLB.  This 52% Save Rate however places the DBacks near the bottom of the ranks.
 
We had 9 Best Bets on the week, a slight pickup from week 1. We lost our first (and only) 3 unit play and have not released any totals yet in 2013.


Scoring Update

Teams are averaging 4.26 Runs Per Game this year which is the lowest since the 4.12 scored in 1992. In totals wagering however, the Over has a commanding 283-249 lead (253-228 in Non Extra Inning Games). This 53+% Overs percentage won't be sustained, so look for the Under to catch up over the next few weeks.

Have a great week!
The Baseball Handicapper

 

Week #   Beg Date    End Date    Best Bets    Wins    Loses    Ties    Units    Running Total

    1          4/29/2013     5/5/2013           7              4           3         0      +1.20          +1.20

                         Season Totals            7              4           3         0      +1.20

All Stats and Records quoted are through games of Sunday, May 5th 
 
Week in Review

The Baseball Handicapper started the 2013 season showing a modest 1.20 unit profit while going 4-3.  We also had one selection rained out after 4 innings while leading 1-0.  We expect to offer a larger quantity of picks this coming week as more games will have the preferred minimum starts for each pitcher.

 
Listed Pitchers

Just a reminder that when playing any of our Picks be sure to specify "Listed Pitchers".  As we are distributing our Best Bets earlier in the day there is a greater possibility of a change of pitcher after we have released a pick.  So be sure that you specify the Starting Pitchers as indicated in our email.

 
Wagering on Over/Unders

This year I do anticipate releasing some Best Bets on Game Total Runs Scored also known as Over/Unders.  I thought it might be useful to review wagering on Baseball Totals.

When we release an Over/Under Best Bet it will ALWAYS be on the combined total runs scored of both teams.  That may sound funny or obvious, but nowadays there are lines for how many runs each team will score in a single MLB Game.  We do not analyze these lines so we will not have a selection of this type.

Wagering on Over/Unders in Baseball can be confusing. In Football and Basketball, an “over” or “under” wager or “totals” wager is just another bet from the viewpoint that you are typically laying 1.10 to win 1.00. In a Football game for instance you might play Over 47 points and risk 1.10 to win 1.00 times the number of units.

In Baseball however there is a runs component and a money odds component. For example, if a game is quoted as 8 or “8 flat” then it would be the same as with Football or Basketball. You could play Over or Under 8 and either would cost you 1.10 to win 1.00. The money component however, is not always -1.10.  For example, you might be quoted “8 over -1.20”. In this scenario the total is 8, but if you wanted the Over you would risk 1.20 to win 1.00 and if you wanted Under you would risk 1.00 to win 1.00. That is because there is typically a total of 20 cents of juice and rather than change the total number of runs, the bookie may adjust the money odds. You may see 8 Over -1.30. There you would risk 1.30 to win 1.00 if you want the over but if you played Under you would wager 1.00 to win 1.10.

The situation could also be reversed and you may be quoted 8 under -1.30. In this scenario the opposite is true. A wager Under would require you to lay 1.30 to win 1.00 and on a bet Over you would risk 1.00 to win 1.10. Just keep in mind that typically there is a total of 20 cents of juice combined between the Over and Under.

We will probably not have too many Over/Under wagers this season, but we will be real specific on what to wager when we do. When betting totals the listed pitchers must go (no need to specify) and games that are less than 9 innings are deemed “No Action”, even though they may be considered “official” games by MLB.

 
Have a Great Week!
The Baseball Handicapper