Our Math Model for winning betting baseball requires each starting pitcher to have a minimum of 2 starts both at home and on the road. That requirement eliminated several games from consideration Sunday.

Of additional interest in Sunday’s games was that of the 16 contests, 9 featured a Road Favorite greater than a -1.10. Is this unusual? Considering 9 of 16 = 56+% it certainly is. In examining the records this season, one finds that in games that were greater than -1.10, The Road Team was favorite less than 30% of the time. So we had nearly twice as many Road Favorites than one would expect. How did these favorites do yesterday? They went 6-3, and as none were >-2.00 the Road Favorites were profitable as a group.

How about for the season?

The following statistics take into account only those games were the favorite was greater than -1.10. There is a certain margin of error in these numbers, as the same game will have many wagering lines (depending which book you look at) and the same game at the same book will have many prices from opening to the closing line. We consider a pick game to be up to -1.10 on either team. So for the purposes of this analysis we will consider those favorites greater than pick-em.

To read our full analysis of last week's games, click here.

The Baseball Handicapper is currently +16.39 units for the 2010 season. As it was a short week, we released only 5 Best Bets bringing the season total to 109 picks. We normally project 250 to 300 plays per season, but we may fall short of that this season. There are 12 weeks remaining in the regular season not counting postseason play. To reach 250 by the end of the regular season we would need to average 12 plays per remaining week. That pace would add 144 selections to the 109 already released to total 253 (in addition to the postseason).

We do expect the pace of my selections to increase during July and August, but please remember that it is the quality of the selections and not the quantity that is important. As our method involves looking for value and situational advantages, we will only release a play when it is appropriate.

Follow the link to read more of our tips for betting major league baseball!

The Baseball Handicapper bounced back to go 5-3 and a profit of 3.44 units. The week started off 0-2 in a continuation of the prior week’s downturn, but a strong 5-1finish turned things around.

Due to the All-Star Break there will be only a few play selections this coming week. Look for the number of plays to return to normal levels in the coming weeks.

It is always important to monitor one’s strengths and weaknesses and the Handicapping business is no different. The All Star Break is a good time to see where we are winning and losing money.

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When betting on baseball, it’s important to keep an eye on the scoring statistics for the year. Let’s see how things have been shaping up in 2010.

American League

Hitting and scoring are still at multi-years lows in most offensive categories. Teams are averaging 4.54 runs per game in 2010, the lowest since the 1992 season. Scoring is down 0.28 runs per game from 2009. The stats for Batting Average, Home Runs, and Slugging Percentage are also at multi-year lows.

Of interest, (but not necessarily significant) is the average age of the American League Batter. At 29.4 this is the oldest average age since 1944, and only the mostly war years of 1944-46 had older batters since 1900. Scoring was down during 1944-46 as well. I will leave the reader to decide if there is a correlation between youth and scoring!

It was 1973 when the League adopted the Designated Hitter allowing older seasoned batters to play regularly (in theory). Actually the average age of the American League Batter was lower during the immediate years after this rule adoption. In 1973 the average did rise to 28.0, then an 11 year high, but in years 1974-1979 the average age was below 28.0. The trend has been higher ever since.

The Designated Hitter also brought higher scores as anticipated. In 1972 Teams averaged only 3.47 runs per game. With the new rule in place scoring immediately rose and has not been below 4.00 runs per game since.

National League

While scoring is also at levels not seen since 1992, the drop off has not been that significant. At 4.42 runs per game scoring is off by only .01 runs per game. As with the A.L the stats for Batting Average, Home Runs, and Slugging Percentage are also at multi-year lows.

As you know the National League does not have the Designated Hitter. The average age of a National league batter is 29.0, about the average for the last 7 seasons.

Over/Unders

No scoring analysis is useful unless we correlate it to the Over/Under records to see how well the Public and Oddsmakers are adapting to this trend. For the season the record is 391/412 (Over/Under) or 51.31% towards Unders. For the last 30 days there has been 187/203 or 52.05% Unders. As with last year we look for the Under dominance to continue and expand.

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